5 reasons the iPhone could fail

Wednesday January 10, 2007

After years of waiting and endless speculation, Apple has finally released the iPhone. Loaded with features and packed with dazzling graphics, widgets and overall coolness, the iPhone would appear to be the end all/be all cellular/smart/media phone.

But is it? This article discusses five things that the iPhone is missing that could keep it from being serious competition to other convergent phones such as the Treo, Motorola Q or the Blackberry or even consumer devices like the Razr or Chocolate.

1 - Input
The iPhone doesn’t have a slide out, flip down or under the faceplate keyboard. In fact, the only keyboard it has is an onscreen version that is operated by the users fingers. Apple says that the onscreen keyboard is perfect for dashing off a quick SMS.
I don’t know about you, but if I’m paying $600 for a Smartphone, I’m going to be doing more communicating than exchanging text messages. I currently have a Cingular 8125, and I send and receive emails on it all day long, as well as taking numerous notes and editing documents.
I don’t see that happening with a touch sensitive onscreen keyboard that my big fingers will have to fight with. I see a tremendous 3rd party opening for a Bluetooth folding keyboard (are you listening, MacAlly, Kensington and Belkin?).

There is also no stylus, and the assumption is that since most people don’t write with their fingers but with a pen/pencil, that one will not be able to write on the screen. So this means that there is also no character recognition built-in, such as Graffiti or even the amazing technology that was available in Apples’ own Newton.

Going back to note taking, the question to ask is this: is there a voice memo recorder? Can I make a quick note and have it synch back to Entourage or Outlook as a note item, like ActiveSync or HotSync? Can I speak to the iPhone and have it transcribe the note to text for me?

The technology for all of this exists in OS X, so if this isn’t part of the base package, perhaps some enterprising company can make it happen (I’m looking at you, Mark/Space).

2 - Application development
A current unknown is this: will you be able to run ‘normal’ Mac applications on your iPhone? Or will they need to be specially ported for mobile use?
As of a few minutes ago, there is no iPhone SDK or information at all on Apples Developer Connection. June isn’t that far away…if the applications are going to require a special compile, developers are going to need some lead time! Which compels me to ask: what kind of processor is in the iPhone? Will applications compiled as Universal be truly Universal?
If applications can be used on the iPhone, how will that affect licensing? Can I run Office on the iPhone? How about Transmit or Microsoft’s Remote Desktop?
What about Windows users? Will they be able to install iPhone apps from a Window machine? Will the iPhone synch back to iTunes for backups, like (again) ActiveSync or HotSync?

Unless Apple makes a move quickly to get some information into the hands of developers, there is going to be a huge dearth of software when this thing finally rolls out.

3 - The screen
Ok, it’s gorgeous, we’ll give it that. But the question on everyones keyboards is this: “Is it going to be scratched all to hell the first week you have it?”
Unless the screen is covered in some 3M style plastic covering, the answer will be yes. But how will that effect the touch screen itself? Will the screen be sensitive enough with a thin sheet of plastic over it to properly respond to your input?

Oh, and how about this: Cingular, in particular, does not allow customers to insure SmartPhones. Again, if I spend this much money on a first generation iPhone and the screen cracks, scratches or becomes distorted, I’m not going to be a very happy camper when Cingular tells me ‘too bad’ or Apple gouges me $150 bucks more for Applecare (assuming it is offered for the iPhone).

4 - Accessories
How many of you have one of the following: iPod, PDA, cell phone, iPod dock/speakers, headphones, headsets, FM Transmitters, car docks or any number of 3rd party add-ons?

On average, I would estimate that I’ve spent as much on accessories as I have for my iPod or my phone. Folks like me who have a long commute or travel extensively, have docks and transmitters and cables and cases everywhere. Sure, some of this stuff will have to be scrapped (cases, for instance), but what about docks and speaker systems? Will the iPhones iPod slot fit onto these older components? Will it be able to charge via an existing third party product?

Don’t think it can’t happen…when the 2nd generation Nano was released, many folks were perturbed to learn that the iPod had been redesigned so that third party stuff wouldn’t fit properly.

If Apple doesn’t offer some backwards compatibility with existing iPod accessories, there will certainly be a backlash and reluctance to invest $600 + new stuff.

And last but not least:
5 - the network
Unless Apple offers an unlocked version of the iPhone, they’re going to be hampered by the simple fact that most people are locked into plans on other carriers. Cingular has it’s own issues, and assuming that people will jump ship from their own provider to go to the company that is target=”_blank”>in customer service is, in my opinion, overly optimistic.

Not to mention that in some areas of the USA, Cingulars coverage is spotty at best. No one I know is going to sacrifice $600 + usability + reliability + a penalty for breaking their contract.

If the iPhone is not available in a non-carrier specific format, it could lead to Apples tremendous goodwill and innovation becoming nothing more than a failed, glorious experiment.

Conclusion
Yes, the iPhone is technically amazing. It is breathtaking and makes anything else on the market seem like old school technology. But unless Apple has the pieces in place to fill in these (and other) holes, it’s all for naught.

And again, don’t think that Apple won’t drop the iPhone in a second if it starts to lose momentum for lacking features while being so ahead of it’s time. It’s happened before…just ask the Newton owners.

Addendum
Feel free to comment, but be cool…this is all just my opinion. Obviously I’m an Apple fan (look where you are, for Steves sake!), but I’m not so infatuated that I can’t see past the shimmer.